Waiting For the Next Shoe to Drop
The IMC blog initiated a short position in the March T-bond/T-note spread at 26-18 (premium bonds) on January 20th. For the last month, we’ve had little to show for our efforts as the spread has remained range-bound.
However, the spread did flash a major bearish signal back in early October when it closed below the widely-watch 200-day Moving Average for the first time since the first week of 2016. We felt that the right move was to get short once the rally off the December low started to fade. We still think that.
A breakout above the current trading range would be our signal to take a loss on this initial trade and get to the sidelines. If that occurs, it would increase the possibility of a rally to resistance at the declining 200-day MA where we would watch for a setup to take another crack at it. Until then, we simply stay short.
First Notice Day for the March treasury contracts is on Monday. Therefore, we have to roll to the June contracts today in order to maintain our position.
Liquidate the short March T-bond/T-note spread and simultaneously enter a short June T-bond/T-note spread at the market-on-close on Friday, February 24th. Risk the June spread to a two-day close above 27-24.