Copper/Crude Spread: Rollover Update

Overdue Update  

The IMC blog entered a short position in the March copper/crude oil spread at +$13,265 (premium copper) on December 1st.  We rolled to the May contracts at the market-on-close last Friday (February 17th) because Monday was the Last Trading Day for the crude contract.

Alas, I had a blog post all queued up for the rollover last Friday and forgot to send it!  If you have a decent broker, however, they should have given you notice that the March crude contract needed to be liquidated or rolled.

On February 17th, the March copper/crude oil spread closed at +$14,275 and the May copper/crude oil spread closed at +$13,880.  Therefore, the discounted price would put us in the May spread at the equivalent of +$12,870.

may-copper-crude-oil-spread-daily

May Copper Crude Oil spread daily

As a reminder to why the blog initiated a short position, it is because the nearest-futures copper/crude oil spread signaled a bearish trend change after peaking out at +$20,640 in late November.  Historically, prior runs to +$17,000 or higher have been followed by major bear markets that hammered the copper/crude oil spread down to where crude oil had a premium of $10,000 or more over the copper.  Therefore, this could be just the start of a major decline.  We will be watching for setups to add to the short position along the way.

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