Gold/Crude Spread: Verbatim Replay of 2015

Short-covered

The IMC blog reentered a hypothetical short position in the December gold/crude (x3) spread at -$14,430 (premium crude) on July 13th.  The position was then liquidated at -$2,620 (premium crude) on July 26th.

The mid-July short sale was made after the spread neared a Fibonacci .618 retracement, briefly closed above the 100-day Moving Average, and then rolled over.  The idea was that this should be the end of a bear market rally.

The position was liquidated because the spread broke out above the early July price peak.  This put back on track for a continuation of the bull market.

Right now, it appears that we are watching a rerun from last year.  Recall that the spread peaked in January 2015, closed below the 100-day MA in mid-April for the first time in several months, and closed back above the 100-day MA in early July.  This was followed by a continued bull run and new contract highs.

This year the spread peaked in January (again!), closed below the 100-day MA in mid-April for the first time in several months (again!), and closed back above the 100-day MA in early July (again!).

December Gold Crude Oil (x3) spread dailyIf the analog continues, we should be looking at new contract highs soon, an autumn pause, and then more upside right at the end of the year.  Until the 2016 pattern shows a divergence from the 2015 pattern, we are going to hang back on the sidelines.

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